Locating Spatial Variation in the Association Between Wildland Fire Risk and Social Vulnerability Across Six Southern States

Wildland fire in the South commands considerable attention, given the expanding wildland urban interface (WUI) across the region. Much of this growth is propelled by higher income retirees and others desiring natural amenity residential settings. However, population growth in the WUI increases the likelihood of wildfire fire ignition caused by people, as humans account for 93% of all wildfires fires in the South. Coexisting with newly arrived, affluent WUI populations are working class, poor or otherwise socially vulnerable populations. The latter groups typically experience greater losses from environmental disasters such as wildfire because lower income residents are less likely to have established mitigation programs in place to help absorb loss. We use geographically weighted regression to examine spatial variation in the association between social vulnerability (SOVUL) and wildfire risk. In doing so, we identify “hot spots” or geographical clusters where SOVUL varies positively with wildfire risk across six Southern states—Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. These clusters may or may not be located in the WUI. These hot spots are most prevalent in South Carolina and Florida. Identification of these population clusters can aid wildfire managers in deciding which communities to prioritize for mitigation programming.     

The role of digital data entry in participatory environmental monitoring

Many argue that monitoring conducted exclusively by scientists is insufficient to address ongoing environmental challenges. One solution entails the use of mobile digital devices in participatory monitoring (PM) programs. But how digital data entry affects programs with varying levels of stakeholder participation, from nonscientists collecting field data to nonscientists administering every step of a monitoring program, remains unclear. We reviewed the successes, in terms of management interventions and sustainability, of 107 monitoring programs described in the literature (hereafter programs) and compared these with case studies from our PM experiences in Australia, Canada, Ethiopia, Ghana, Greenland, and Vietnam (hereafter cases). Our literature review showed that participatory programs were less likely to use digital devices, and 2 of our 3 more participatory cases were also slow to adopt digital data entry. Programs that were participatory and used digital devices were more likely to report management actions, which was consistent with cases in Ethiopia, Greenland, and Australia. Programs engaging volunteers were more frequently reported as ongoing, but those involving digital data entry were less often sustained when data collectors were volunteers. For the Vietnamese and Canadian cases, sustainability was undermined by a mismatch in stakeholder objectives. In the Ghanaian case, complex field protocols diminished monitoring sustainability. Innovative technologies attract interest, but the foundation of effective participatory adaptive monitoring depends more on collaboratively defined questions, objectives, conceptual models, and monitoring approaches. When this foundation is built through effective partnerships, digital data entry can enable the collection of more data of higher quality. Without this foundation, or when implemented ineffectively or unnecessarily, digital data entry can be an additional expense that distracts from core monitoring objectives and undermines project sustainability. The appropriate role of digital data entry in PM likely depends more on the context in which it is used and less on the technology itself.     

Using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for blast wave predictions

Explosions will, in most cases, generate blast waves. While simple models (e.g., Multi Energy Method) are useful for simple explosion geometries, most practical explosions are far from trivial and require detailed analyses. For a reliable estimate of the blast from a gas explosion it is necessary to know the explosion strength. The source explosion may not be symmetric; the pressure waves will be reflected or deflected when hitting objects, or even worse, the blast waves may propagate inside buildings or tunnels with a very low rate of decay. The use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) explosion models for near and far field blast wave predictions has many advantages. These include more precise estimates of the energy and resulting pressure of the blast wave, as well as the ability to evaluate non-symmetrical effects caused by realistic geometries, gas cloud variations and ignition locations. This is essential when evaluating the likelihood of a given leak source as cause of an explosion or equally when evaluating the potential risk associated with a given leak source for a consequence analysis.In addition, unlike simple methods, CFD explosion models can also evaluate detailed dynamic effects in the near and far field, which include time dependent pressure loads as well as reflection and focusing of the blast waves. This is particularly valuable when assessing actual near-field blast damage during an explosion investigation or potential near-field damage during a risk analysis for a facility. One main challenge in applying CFD, however, is that these models require more information about the actual facility, including geometry details and process information. Collecting the necessary geometry and process data may be quite time consuming. This paper will show some blast prediction validation examples for the CFD model FLACS. It will also provide examples of how directional effects or interaction with objects can significantly influence the dynamics of the blast wave. Finally, the challenge of obtaining useful predictions with insufficient details regarding the geometry will also be addressed.     

An Aquifer Classification System and Geographical Information System-Based Analysis Tool for Watershed Managers in the Western U.S.1

Payne, Scott M. and William W. Woessner, 2010. An Aquifer Classification System and Geographical Information System-Based Analysis Tool for Watershed Managers in the Western U.S. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):1003-1023. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00472.x Abstract: Aquifers and groundwater systems can be classified using a variety of independent methods to characterize geologic and hydraulic properties, the degree of connection with surface water, and geochemical conditions. In light of a growing global demand for water, an approach for classifying groundwater systems at the watershed scale is needed. A comprehensive classification system is proposed that combines recognized methods and new approaches. The purpose of classification is to provide groundwater professionals, policy makers, and watershed managers with a widely applicable and repeatable system that reduces sometimes cumbersome complex databases and analyzes to straightforward terminology and graphical representations. The proposed classification system uses basin geology, aquifer productivity, water quality, and the degree of groundwater/surface water connection as classification criteria. The approach is based on literature values, reference databases, and fundamental hydrologic and hydrogeologic principles. The proposed classification system treats dataset completeness as a variable and includes a tiered assessment protocol that depends on the quality and quantity of data. In addition, it assembles and catalogs groundwater information using a consistent set of nomenclature. It is designed to analyze and display results using Geographical Information System mapping tools.     

Exploring the Crowding–Satisfaction Relationship in Recreational Boating

Along with the growing boating population and the number of boats in use on limited inland waterways, boater expectations of setting density, safety perceptions, and the associated impacts on their experience (e.g., satisfaction) are becoming increasingly important. The primary purpose of this article was to explore a recreational boating crowding–satisfaction model derived from previous work using safety and enjoyment as mediating variables. We also tested our crowding–satisfaction model among day and overnight users. Our analysis revealed no significant difference between day and overnight users for any of the relationships tested in our model. Our final model indicated as respondents’ expectations for seeing people increased along with their feelings of being crowded, they were more inclined to consider the conditions on the lake as being unsafe. They were also more inclined to indicate that the number of people they had seen on the lake detracted from their boating experience. Respondents’ satisfaction was tied to their perceptions of crowding. Mediating variables illustrated that the relationship was conditioned by perceptions of safety and enjoyment. Analysis of the indirect effect observed in our study illustrate that when the number of people seen on the lake exceed respondents’ expectations, their perceptions of safety and enjoyment both decline, resulting in lower satisfaction. These findings have implications for managing recreational boating use on inland lake systems. Given the role played by expectations in our model, efforts to communicate with boaters about conditions on these waterways is important for helping them plan their boating experience and avoid situations they consider unsafe or unsatisfactory.     

Effect of diel period and season on seining effort required to detect changes in Lake Erie beach fish assemblages

Using beach seining data from Lake Erie beaches, we examined the effect of diel period and season on two common study objectives considered sensitive to sampling effort: (1) has fish assemblage composition changed between two sampling time periods?, and (2) how many samples are necessary to provide a representative sample of the fish assemblage? Across a range of effect sizes and power levels, sample sizes were estimated for species richness, total fish abundance, round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) abundance and emerald shiner (Notropis atherinoides) abundance. For most sampling periods and effect sizes, several hundred to several thousand seine hauls were estimated to be required for detecting large-scale (e.g. basin-wide) changes in round goby and emerald shiner abundance. Depending on the indicator of interest, night seining (either spring or fall) was interpreted as the most efficient approach. For both seasons, sampling effort beyond 40 to 50 night seine hauls results in few additional species being detected. Both species accumulation curves and estimated sample sizes indicate that less effort is required to detect species richness changes than fish abundance. For most effect sizes and power levels, estimates of the number of seine hauls required to detect changes in fish abundance are unrealistically large for most monitoring programs. More practical monitoring strategies could be achieved by adopting alternative indicators (e.g. guilds), a more liberal significance level (p=0.1), a paired-site sampling design, or including reference sites.     

Use of Preservative Agents and Antibiotics for Increased Poliovirus Survival on Positively Charged Filters

Environmental surveillance of poliovirus (PV) and other non-enveloped viruses can help identify silent circulation and is necessary to certify eradication. The bag-mediated filtration system is an efficient method to filter large volumes of environmental waters at field sites for monitoring the presence of viruses. As filters may require long transit times to off-site laboratories for processing, viral inactivation or overgrowth of bacteria and fungi can interfere with virus detection and quantification (Miki and Jacquet in Aquatic Microb Ecol 51(2):195–208, 2008). To evaluate virus survival over time on ViroCap^? filters, the filters were seeded with PV type 1 (PV1) and/or MS2 and then dosed with preservatives or antibiotics prior to storage and elution. These filters were stored at various temperatures and time periods, and then eluted for PV1 and MS2 recovery quantification. Filters dosed with the preservative combination of 2% sodium benzoate and 0.2% calcium propionate had increased virus survival over time when stored at 25 °C, compared to samples stored at 25 °C with no preservatives. While elution within 24 h of filtration is recommended, if storage or shipping is required then this preservative mixture can help preserve sample integrity. Addition of an antibiotic cocktail containing cephapirin, gentamicin, and Proclin^? 300 increased recovery after storage at 4 and 25 °C, when compared to storage with no antibiotics. The antibiotic cocktail can aid sample preservation if access to appropriate antibiotics storage is available and sample cold chain is unreliable. This study demonstrated that the use of preservatives or antibiotics is a simple, cost-effective method to improve virus detection from ViroCap cartridge filters over time.     

Prompting safety-belt use in the context of a belt-use law: the flash-for life revisited

PROBLEM: Safety-belt use reduces motor vehicle crash-related morbidity and mortality, yet an estimated 18% of drivers do not consistently buckle up (NHTSA, 2005). In 1985, Geller and colleagues developed an interpersonal Flash-for-Life prompt that increased belt use among 22% of 1,087 unbuckled drivers (Geller, Bruff, & Nimmer, 1985). METHOD: The Flash-for-Life intervention was re-introduced at a large university with high safety-belt use (i.e., 80%). College students stood at parking-lot entrance/exits and "flashed" signs with the message, "Please Buckle Up, I Care" to unbuckled drivers. RESULTS: Of 427 unbuckled drivers observed, 30% of these complied with the prompt. Male drivers were significantly more likely to comply with prompts delivered by females. DISCUSSION: Compliance was higher than in the 1985 study, indicating a high baseline rate of safety-belt use does not negate potential beneficial influence of a prompting intervention. This intervention is particularly effective with college-aged males, a sub-group of the driving population least likely to buckle-up. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: A simple behavioral prompt could be used at most industrial complexes to increase safety-belt use among vehicle occupants who are not buckled-up.     

An individual and a sex odor signature in kittiwakes? Study of the semiochemical composition of preen secretion and preen down feathers

The importance of olfaction in birds’ social behavior has long been denied. Avian chemical signaling has thus been relatively unexplored. The black-legged kittiwake provides a particularly appropriate model for investigating this topic. Kittiwakes preferentially mate with genetically dissimilar individuals, but the cues used to assess genetic characteristics remain unknown. As in other vertebrates, their body odors may carry individual and sexual signatures thus potentially reliably signaling individual genetic makeup. Here, we test whether body odors in preen gland secretion and preen down feathers in kittiwakes may provide a sex and an individual signature. Using gas chromatography and mass spectrometry, we found that male and female odors differ quantitatively, suggesting that scent may be one of the multiple cues used by birds to discriminate between sexes. We further detected an individual signature in the volatile and nonvolatile fractions of preen secretion and preen down feathers. These results suggest that kittiwake body odor may function as a signal associated with mate recognition. It further suggests that preen odor might broadcast the genetic makeup of individuals, and could be used in mate choice to assess the genetic compatibility of potential mates.